Wall Street Expects Oil Price To Recover In 2024

According to Wall Street analysts, there is a chance that oil prices could possibly rebound in the upcoming year, though probably not much. Five major banks have projected that the global benchmark Brent will average roughly $85 per barrel in 2024, down from its current level of $77.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has the highest estimate at $92, while Citigroup Inc. has the lowest, at $75 per barrel. With China driving the growth, it is commonly anticipated that the world’s oil demand would surpass record levels in 2024. Regarding the size of the expansion and the ease with which it will be met by increased supply, analysts are still at odds.

Generally, people are feeling more cautious than they did at the beginning of the year, when a number of influential business figures predicted that the price of petroleum would rise back to $100 a barrel. Surprisingly robust output from producers like the US, Guyana, and Iran stymied such bullish calls.

Global oil markets are expected to tip into surplus next year, according to Citigroup, whose December prediction that Brent would average $80 a barrel this year has turned out to be rather accurate.

The bank anticipates that in order to keep prices close to present levels, OPEC+ will need to continue its steeper production cutbacks due to “economic and energy-transition headwinds” and abundant supply from the US.



Stabilization of crude oil price

“OPEC has the power to keep the market stable. Prices are predicted by economists to stabilize. Veteran analyst Ed Morse, who worked for the bank for 12 years before stepping down last month, was in charge of the outlook for 2023.

JPMorgan Chase analysts, correctly anticipated that Brent would find it difficult to break triple digits. Analysts also estimate that the average price of petroleum for the coming year will be $83 per barrel. The bank has maintained its 2023 estimate at $81 per barrel since June, which is not too far from the real average of $82.30.

While Francisco Blanch of Bank of America Corp. predicts an average of $90 per barrel for Brent, Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats sees it averaging $85 a barrel for the upcoming year.

Goldman Sachs is the most optimistic. It projects that global oil consumption will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2019 and anticipates that the main OPEC members will closely monitor supply. This will keep prices between $80 and $100 and leave global markets with a modest deficit.

According to OPEC producer group projections, global oil consumption is expected to rise by a robust 2.2 million barrels per day in the upcoming year. The International Energy Agency in Paris, which primarily provides advice to consuming nations, observes growth at a pace of only half that.