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U.S. Inflation Erupts Past Forecasts: April CPI Jumps to 3.8% as Iran War Energy Shock Bleeds Through

Key Takeaways

  • Headline CPI accelerates: U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year in April — beating both forecasts and March’s reading.
  • Monthly pace eases: Month-on-month CPI slowed to 0.6% from March’s 0.9%, matching expectations.
  • Core inflation surprises higher: Core CPI accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year, topping the 2.7% forecast.
  • Monthly core hot too: Core CPI rose 0.4% on the month, above the 0.3% expected.
  • Sticky pressures emerge: Core readings — which strip out food and fuel — point to underlying inflation pressure beyond just energy.

Headline U.S. consumer prices grew by 3.8% in the twelve months to April, running faster than both economists’ projections and the prior month’s reading.

Month-on-month, the Labor Department’s consumer price index — a key gauge of U.S. inflation — slowed to 0.6% from 0.9%, as anticipated.

So-called “core” CPI, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, both accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year and 0.4% on a monthly basis. Economists had predicted readings of 2.7% and 0.3% respectively.

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