WTI touches $81.00 amid holiday-thinned trading

Despite US exchanges being closed on Juneteenth, WTI crude tested into new highs on Wednesday on light trade, trimming $81.00 per barrel as commodities drifted higher. As Crude Oil recovers from a recent swing low, WTI reached a new seven-week high and is expected to continue rising for a second straight week. However, this could undermine expectations in the energy market of a summertime surge in energy consumption if US Crude Oil production keeps up with demand.

On Wednesday, barrel bids went into new highs, although they are still low. Because of the holiday on Wednesday, US markets are closed, and volatility and market flows are still low. A prolonged increase in US crude oil supplies could make people less optimistic.

As US production of crude oil continues to outpace current demand levels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported another week-over-week increase in US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks this week, adding 2.264 million barrels to counts and eating away at the previous week’s -2.428 million barrel decline.


Later in the year, OPEC+ is expected to conclude its voluntary production restrictions, which were intended to support global crude oil prices by restricting output. However, pumping limitations are about to be phased out in the third quarter as OPEC+ countries that depend on crude oil output to meet their government budgets are giving way.

Energy markets were likewise disappointed by recent Chinese demand data; nevertheless, barrel traders are now shifting their bets in the hopes of a vaguely anticipated spike in summers energy demand to reduce the current excess. After the 3.73 million barrel building from the previous week, barrel dealers are anticipating a -2.0 million barrel depletion for the week ended June 14 when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its own week-over-week barrel counts on Thursday.

Technical Factors

WTI crude oil’s technical rebound from the most recent significant swing low of $72.45, has been momentarily stalled. WTI has managed to break over the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.84 and has ended higher for eleven straight trading days with the exception of four. A slack in bullish momentum could drop US Crude Oil back below the 200-day EMA and trigger another wave lower for WTI, which would push bids back below a trendline that descends from the high bids in 2024, which is expected to be around $87.00 per barrel.