WTI pressured as supply risks raise concerns

The WTI crude is under pressure leading up to the key event of the week; namely Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at 87.18 having crawled between $86.30 low and $90.05 high.

Oil retreated on Wednesday with overall negative performance, losing over 1.8% on the day into the close on Wall Street. OPEC lowered its demand expectations for this year and next following the oil output cut targets made on October 5 by two-million barrels per day.

Oil prices are key this week with regard to Thursday’s release of the US Consumer Price Index where core prices have likely stayed strong in September, with the series registering another large 0.5% MoM gain.

Rent inflation is strong, though markets look for used vehicle prices to retreat sharply. Importantly, fuel prices brought additional relief for the headline series again, declining by about 5% MoM. Month on Month forecasts imply 8.2%/6.6% YoY for total/core prices.

The data will be firming the Fed’s determination to slow the economy through higher interest rates and heightening the recession fears that have been a bearish factor for oil.