WTI extends losses on floating dollar, Covid-linked fears

This week’s coronavirus crisis has impacted West Texas Intermediate crude oil price, on fluctuating expectations about potentially lower demand. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is threatening to impose a cap on Russian oil exports and the floating performance of the US Dollar, all these factors are keeping WTI in a remarkably defensive stance.

The US crude oil benchmark, remains moderately negative due to low demand concerns surrounding the crude oil market. Factors like ongoing China’s Covid-19 outbreak and reports emerging during the week for increased crude output keep the WTI price stable. At the time of writing, WTI crude trades around $77. Per barrel. It is trading now at $76.70.

Investors’ sentiment is mixed, partly because of the thin liquidity conditions amid a shortened week due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. Additionally, China is registering high number of Covid-19 cases would dent demand for the black gold, weighed on WTI price.


Covid cases peaked around 31,987 on Thursday, up from Wednesday’s 29,754. At the beginning of the week, Chinese authorities revealed measures to relax Covid-19, aiming to be less restrictive. Still, officials in some cities are again reimposing stricter measures and ordering lockdowns as they scramble to suppress the virus.

Aside from this, reports that the European Union continues its discussions to impose a price cap to Russian oil, between $65 to $70 per barrel, depressed oil prices.

Additionally, the US dollar appreciated Friday as some short covering speculation surrounded the market. The US Dollar Index climbs 0.36%, up at 106.000.

Technically; after reaching a weekly high of $82.35 PB on Tuesday, WTI prolonged its losses throughout the week. Of note, WTI falling below $80.00 PB opened the door for further downside and might test the November 21 low of $75.30 if some fundamental reasons increased uncertainty about oil demand. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to fall further, meaning that sellers are gathering momentum.

Therefore, WTI’s path of least resistance is downwards. WTI’s first support would be $77.00. Break below will expose the November 21 low of $75.30, which, once cleared, could send the WTI price tumbling toward its YTD low of $74.30.