WTI Extends Losses Below $61 as Supply Fears Resurface and Traders Await OPEC+

WTI crude extended its decline on Tuesday, slipping to $60.64 per barrel, down 1.06%, as fresh supply concerns and broader risk caution outweighed lingering geopolitical support. The move reflects a market increasingly sensitive to returning production and hesitant to price in upside ahead of key policy signals from OPEC+.

At the session’s close, US crude traded well below its previous close of $61.29, after opening near $61.22 and touching an intraday low of $60.50, underscoring the fragile tone dominating energy markets.


Supply pressures reassert themselves as outages fade

The latest leg lower came as traders refocused on the return of disrupted output, particularly from Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz field. The resumption of flows from one of the country’s largest oil projects reinforced concerns that global supply growth could once again outpace demand, especially with non-OPEC producers maintaining elevated production levels.

This backdrop has kept rallies capped, with the market struggling to sustain moves above the $62–$62.50 resistance zone, an area repeatedly flagged by traders as a major supply level.


Geopolitical risk offers only limited protection

While tensions in the Middle East continue to provide a floor under prices, the risk premium has softened. Recent reports suggesting a pause in immediate military escalation have reduced safe-haven demand for crude, even as warnings from Tehran and increased US naval presence in the region keep investors alert to sudden headline risk.

The result has been a market unwilling to fully price out geopolitical threats, but equally reluctant to bid prices higher without tangible supply disruptions.


Trade rhetoric adds to uncertainty

Adding another layer of caution, renewed trade friction between the US and Canada has unsettled sentiment. Comments from President Donald Trump threatening tariffs on Canadian goods, should Ottawa deepen trade ties with China, raised questions given Canada’s role as the largest foreign supplier of crude to the US. While no policy action has followed, the rhetoric has injected fresh uncertainty into North American supply expectations.


OPEC+ remains the key catalyst ahead

Attention is now firmly turning to the February 1 OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to maintain its pause on production increases. With markets already grappling with oversupply fears, any signal of a policy shift could quickly reshape price dynamics.
For now, WTI appears locked in a cautious range, with downside pressure dominating near-term trading as investors balance returning supply, softer geopolitical risk, and the looming influence of OPEC+ decisions.