Will OPEC+ Flood Sink WTI Below $65?

WTI Stalls Amid Supply Shifts

On June 30, 2025, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil hovered below $65.00 per barrel, paring early gains. A brief spike followed news of Prax Group’s insolvency in the UK, raising fears of reduced diesel and gasoline supply in Northwest Europe. However, attention quickly shifted to OPEC+ supply plans, with the group expected to greenlight a 411,000-barrel-per-day increase for August, pushing 2025’s total hike to 1.8 million barrels. Can WTI hold its ground against rising supply?

Geopolitical Calm Eases Pressure

A recent Israel-Iran ceasefire has stripped away the geopolitical risk premium that once buoyed oil prices. This de-escalation, unlike 2019’s Strait of Hormuz tensions, cools market fears, capping WTI’s upside. For instance, a Texas refinery might see stable input costs, but global oversupply looms large.

Technical Signals Warn of Weakness

WTI found support at $64.18, near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, but struggles below the 100-day SMA at $65.45. The RSI at 46 signals fading bullish momentum. A drop below $63.73 could target $60.59, while a push above $67.08 eyes $68.29.

What Lies Ahead?

OPEC+’s July 6 meeting will set the tone. If production rises unchecked, WTI may slide further. Conversely, tighter supply or renewed tensions could spark a rebound. Next week’s data will be crucial.