Will OPEC+ Boost Oil Production Again This Sunday?

Global energy markets are on edge as OPEC+, the alliance of major oil-producing nations, gears up for an online meeting this Sunday to set October’s production levels. With Brent crude prices hovering around $68 per barrel, the group faces a critical dilemma: ramp up output to reclaim market share or pause to maintain price stability in a turbulent global economy. This decision could impact fuel prices, inflation, and economies worldwide.

Since April, OPEC+ has reversed years of production cuts, increasing quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day—roughly 2.4% of global demand. Driven partly by international pressure to lower fuel costs, this shift included a September boost of 547,000 barrels per day, with an additional 300,000 barrels allocated to the United Arab Emirates. Yet, prices remain high, propped up by Western sanctions on key producers like Russia and Iran, which have tightened supply. Brent crude, down slightly on Wednesday, still sits well above its April low of $58, showing that these increases haven’t yet eased pump prices.

Sunday’s meeting, involving eight key OPEC+ members, will decide whether to unwind another layer of cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day—1.6% of global demand—originally set to continue until the end of 2026. This move would accelerate efforts to regain market share, especially as rivals like the United States ramp up production amid elevated prices. However, sources within OPEC+ suggest the group might pause October’s increases to avoid oversupplying the market and risking price drops. No official comments have come from OPEC’s Vienna headquarters or Saudi authorities, leaving the decision up in the air.

Controlling nearly half the world’s oil supply, OPEC+ is at a crossroads. Boosting production could heighten competition with non-OPEC producers, potentially lowering prices but risking oversupply. Holding back could preserve price stability but allow rivals to gain ground. With geopolitical tensions, including sanctions, and economic pressures in play, the world awaits a decision that could reshape energy markets. Will OPEC+ push for more output or play it cautious? Sunday’s meeting will tell.