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Will Bitcoin Soar to $190K or Stumble? The Crypto Market’s Wild Ride

Bitcoin’s price Dednesday, October 15, 2025rice has dipped to $108,392, down 3.72% or $4,189, reflecting a volatile yet promising market. Despite a 3.74% drop in the last day, a 3.64% decline over the week, and an 8.10% slide in the past month, Bitcoin boasts a remarkable 83.58% gain over the past year and a staggering 839.23% increase over five years. Tiger Research’s bold forecast predicts Bitcoin could hit $190,000 by Q3 2025, driven by record global liquidity, ETF demand, and new 401(k) access. Their model starts at a base price of $135,000, adding a 3.5% boost from fundamentals and 35% from macro conditions, projecting a 67% rise from the current $113,000 average. Yet, on-chain metrics like MVRV-Z at 2.49 and NUPL at 0.558 suggest a market that’s active but not overheated, raising the question: can Bitcoin sustain this momentum, or will volatility prevail?

Institutional interest is reshaping the crypto landscape. A recent executive order has opened U.S. retirement accounts to crypto, potentially unlocking $90 billion in demand from 401(k) allocations, with even a 1% shift from the $8.9 trillion pool making a significant impact. Bitcoin ETFs hold 1.3 million BTC, and companies like Strategy own 629,000 coins worth $71 billion, signaling a shift toward Bitcoin as a core institutional asset. However, daily transactions and active users remain below last year’s highs, and retail engagement has softened. Initiatives like BTCFi could spark renewed interest, but for now, institutions dominate. Meanwhile, Amdax, a Dutch crypto firm, raised €20 million to build a Bitcoin treasury on Euronext, aiming to acquire 1% of the total supply—roughly 210,000 BTC—further underscoring institutional appetite.

The broader crypto market shows mixed signals. Flare’s XRPFi framework is gaining traction, with firms like Everything Blockchain Inc. and VivoPower International adopting it to turn XRP into a yield-generating asset via DeFi protocols. However, XLM has fallen 8% amid institutional pullbacks, and HBAR has dropped 5% as traders test support levels. Bitcoin’s daily ETF trading volume hit $10 billion, with $33.6 billion in Q2 2025 inflows, but the expiration of $11.47 billion in Bitcoin options on August 30, 2025, alongside $14.6 billion in combined Bitcoin and Ethereum options, could amplify volatility. On-chain indicators, like an ASOPR of 1.019, show traders locking in modest profits, suggesting a market that’s warm but not yet at a fever pitch.

Bitcoin’s market cap stands at $2.16 trillion, with a fully diluted cap of $2.28 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $76.37 billion. Its circulating supply is 19.91 million, nearing the 21 million max supply. Despite a recent dip below $109,000, technical patterns like a symmetrical triangle and community insights from traders like LegionQ8 and TraderTilki suggest a potential bounce from the $108,000-$113,000 buyer zone. Platforms like CoinDesk, with events like Consensus Hong Kong and podcasts like Markets Daily, keep the community informed. As Bitcoin navigates this critical juncture, will institutional momentum and technical support drive it toward $190,000, or will profit-taking and volatility cap its ascent? The answer lies in the balance of these forces.

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