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The First Batch of Core Employment Data (NFP) Is Released After the Government Shutdown
This data release comes just one day after the Federal Reserve meeting, which was marked by significant caution regarding the future path of interest rates. Alongside the release, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that October’s employment data will not be fully available, and some components will instead be included with November’s figures.
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for September is scheduled for Thursday, November 20. This report had been delayed due to the government shutdown, which lasted around 43 days—making it the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
Forecasts suggest the addition of roughly 50,000 new jobs, with average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain steady at 4.3%.
After the shutdown ended, BLS employees returned to work to prepare the September edition of the monthly employment report.
The U.S. labor market is expected to have continued its pattern of “limited hiring and limited layoffs” in September—meaning weak job creation but also reduced levels of job separation.
The September report may be one of the last labor market readings available before the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, where policymakers will face a difficult decision regarding a potential rate cut in December.
Currently, markets are pricing in a probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, setting the stage for potentially volatile market reactions when the report is released.
This comes despite expectations that the December employment report will carry more weight in the markets, as it will contain more up-to-date data than the two prior reports.
Preliminary Indicators
There are four key U.S. employment indicators normally used to anticipate results of the monthly jobs report. However, due to the shutdown, the most important one—initial jobless claims—was unavailable this month.
Nevertheless, the other indicators were as follows:
- ISM Services Employment Index rose to 47.2, up from 46.6 in the previous month.
- ISM Manufacturing Employment Index edged higher to 46.0, up from 45.3 previously.
- ADP private payrolls showed a decline of 29,000 jobs, compared with a revised decline of 3,000 in the previous month.
Based on these inputs and internal estimation models, indicators point to the possibility of a stronger-than-expected NFP report, with job growth estimated between 50,000 and 100,000—though this range carries considerable uncertainty due to the limited available data.
Still, the monthly volatility of this report makes forecasting highly difficult, so these estimates—like all others—should be treated with caution.
As usual, other components of the report, such as average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate, will play a critical role in determining market reactions when the data is released.
The September U.S. jobs report comes at a sensitive moment for markets, serving as a key indicator ahead of the Fed’s final meeting of the year, amid divergent expectations and heightened volatility risks.
October Data
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Wednesday that it will not publish a full employment report for October following the longest government shutdown in American history.
The BLS clarified that October’s employment data will be released later, together with the complete November report. The October unemployment rate will not be included, as it was impossible to collect the necessary data during the shutdown.
The bureau also postponed the release of November’s employment report to December 16, instead of the original date of December 5—six days after the Fed’s final meeting of the year.
This means the central bank may face a shortage of critical economic information when making its policy decisions. Meanwhile, the delayed September NFP report is scheduled to be published on Thursday.
The absence of complete October data, combined with recent hawkish remarks from some Fed officials, has led markets to lower expectations for an additional rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 63.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged within the 3.75%–4% range, compared to earlier expectations of around 50%.
Overall, the delay in U.S. employment data increases uncertainty for both the Fed and the broader markets, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may hold interest rates steady at its final meeting of the year.
