What To Expect From RBA’S Meeting Minutes

RBA will publish its December policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. The minutes are expected to offer more detail on the discussion on bonds buying and the timeline for rate hikes.

RBA officials argue a rate rise is unlikely until at least 2023, but markets are betting on a move as early as next May or June and two more increases by year end.

The deciding factor on bonds could be the Australian consumer price report for the fourth quarter in late January, where THE Australian economy is looking for another high reading in underlying inflation.

The RBA’s ending of QE with little need for the program given unemployment is at 4.6% and the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to end their QE by March. The dynamics of the emergent Omicron wave will be the key thing to watch in the near term.

Having started the year down at 0.11%, yields on three-year debt have been trading around 1.0% in recent weeks while the spread over 10-year bonds has shrunk to the smallest since late 2020.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were back on the defensive territory on Monday as the rapid outbreak of coronavirus forced more restrictions in Europe and dimmed the outlook for global growth.

The AUS fell to USD 0.7116, having failed to sustain a brief rally to USD 0.7224 last week. Support lies at USD 0.7090 ahead of the low for the year at USD 0.6994.

The NZD dollar lapsed to USD 0.6728, leaving behind last week’s top of USD 0.6834. Attention is now on its trough for the year at USD 0.6702.

The Netherlands’ decision to lockdown for Christmas sent a shudder through markets, which had thought drastic measures were not needed given progress on vaccinations.

Most Australian states are resisting calls for tighter restrictions though there have been reports of consumers cancelling holidays and restaurant reservations.

If the economy does stay open, many analysts now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to end its bond-buying campaign in February at its first meeting of next year.
A stellar jobs report for November last week seemed to seal the case for an early end to quantitative easing (QE).