Wells Fargo: ECB Deposit Rate to reach 1.00% by the end of 2022

The European Central Bank raised key interest rates on Thursday by 50 bps. The move was larger than expected. Analysts at Wells Fargo believe inflation remains elevated enough, and inflation risks worrisome enough, to continue with a more forceful pace of rate hikes for the time being.

Key Quotes:

“As the lead into the July meeting made clear, even forward guidance on interest rates does not guarantee a particular policy rate outcome. Moreover, we believe inflation remains elevated and inflation risks worrisome enough—Lagarde cited inflation risks were to the upside and have intensified in the short-term—to continue with a more forceful pace of rate hikes for the time being”.


“Our view remains that today’s hike will be followed up by another 50 bps Deposit Rate increase at the September meeting. In addition, while inflation remains elevated and until Eurozone economic growth slows in a much more meaningful manner, we also see a steady series of rate increases as more likely than not. In that context, we also forecast a 25 bps rate increase at the October and December meetings, which would bring the Deposit Rate to 1.00% by the end of 2022”.

“We anticipate that will be the peak during the current cycle—as inflation begins to recede by 2023 and growth slows sharply, we see the ECB keeping interest rates steady through most, if not all, of next year. In essence, after today’s announcement, we anticipate a shorter, sharper rate hike cycle from the European Central Bank than previously”.