Wall Street Wavers as Positive Jobs Data Sets the Stage for a Crucial Fed Decision

U.S. equities delivered a mixed performance on Tuesday as investors entered the first day of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting with guarded optimism. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points—a move that could shape the final stretch of the year for stocks, bonds, and currencies.

The major indices reflected this cautious mood. The S&P 500 edged up by less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a firmer 0.3% gain. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3%, pressured by profit-taking in large-cap technology names ahead of the Fed verdict.

Investors are closely watching for signals about the pace of future easing. The Fed is expected to lower its target rate range to 3.50%–3.75%, with markets pricing in a roughly 95% probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut. Key to shaping sentiment will be the release of the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and the all-important “dot plot,” which outlines policymakers’ rate expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks after the meeting are also poised to influence market direction in the weeks ahead.

Fresh labor-market data added a supportive backdrop to stocks. Private-sector hiring strengthened, with the four-month average for U.S. non-farm employment—tracked by ADP—rising to 4,700 jobs, reversing a previous decline of about 13,500. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also offered positive signals, showing job openings climbing to 7.658 million in September and 7.670 million in October.

Together, the upbeat employment indicators and the looming Fed decision created a delicate balance for markets—encouraging enough to lift sentiment, yet uncertain enough to keep traders firmly on edge as they await the central bank’s next move.