Key Takeaways

• Futures muted: Dow E-minis slipped 42 points (-0.09%), S&P 500 E-minis traded flat, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis edged up 41.75 points (+0.15%).
• Diplomatic setback: Trump canceled a planned trip by two U.S. envoys to Pakistan, dimming hopes for a near-term resolution to the U.S.-Iran war.
• Earnings season impresses: Of the 139 S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 81.3% have topped earnings expectations — above the 78.1% four-quarter average.
• Caveat on results: Analysts warn the strong numbers may not be a reliable guide, reflecting only one month of war-related disruption.
• Market divergence: Equity investors are pivoting back to the AI trade, while commodity participants warn the war’s shock is being severely underestimated.
• Oil still elevated: Brent crude rose 1.5% Monday and remains 49% above pre-war levels.
• Fed in focus: Powell’s likely final meeting as Chair this week, with economists expecting at least a six-month wait before any rate cuts.
• Stock movers: Qualcomm jumped 11.2% and Intel added 2.9% after Friday’s 23.6% surge, while Domino’s Pizza dropped 4% on missed Q1 sales estimates.

Wall Street futures traded in a subdued tone on Monday as peace negotiations between the United States and Iran ground to a halt, while investors braced for an avalanche of corporate earnings and commentary from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned visit by two American envoys to Pakistan, delivering a fresh setback to prospects for a peace breakthrough. With a deal to end the war still elusive, investors have taken reassurance from a steady stream of solid earnings reports so far.

Of the 139 S&P 500 companies that had reported results as of Friday, 81.3% beat earnings expectations, exceeding the prior four-quarter average of 78.1%, according to data from LSEG.

However, some analysts have raised questions about how reliable the figures are as a barometer of future performance, given that they capture only a single month’s worth of disruption tied to the Middle East war.

At 6:46 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 42 points, or 0.09%; S&P 500 E-minis were flat; and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 41.75 points, or 0.15%.

Brent crude futures were trading 1.5% higher on Monday and continue to hover roughly 49% above pre-war levels.

Powell’s Swan Song at the Fed

Investors will also be tuning in to remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, who are gathering in Washington this week for what is widely expected to be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as head of the U.S. central bank.

A Reuters poll of economists conducted last week showed that the Fed is expected to hold off for at least six months before delivering any interest rate cuts this year.

Stocks on the Move

In premarket trading, Qualcomm climbed 11.2%, while Intel rose 2.9% — extending its remarkable 23.6% surge from the previous session.

Domino’s Pizza slipped 4% after the pizza chain came in short of first-quarter sales estimates.