Wall Street Futures Edge Up as Trade Hopes Clash with Inflation Watch

U.S. stock futures advanced marginally on Friday as investors paused to await the highly anticipated September inflation report, a critical data point expected to guide the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rate cuts.

At 05:35 ET (09:35 GMT), Dow Jones Futures rose 65 points (0.1%), S&P 500 Futures gained 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 0.6%. The main Wall Street averages are on track for a solid weekly gain of around 1.1% to 1.2%, largely fueled by easing geopolitical worries.

CPI Data Takes Center Stage After Shutdown

The focus of the session is the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was delayed by the protracted U.S. government shutdown. This data has taken on outsized importance given the current “data vacuum” and its proximity to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

The consensus forecast anticipates the headline and core CPI readings to hover near 3.1% year-over-year. Analysts at ING noted that while tariff-led price pressure exists in some sectors, moderating costs in airfares, hospitality, and housing could keep inflation anchored near 3.0%.

“With headline and core close to 3.0%, the Fed can cut and signal more easing ahead when it meets next week,” said ING analyst Francesco Pesole. Markets are currently fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, followed by another reduction in December, totaling 50 basis points by year-end.

Geopolitical Relief Boosts Sentiment

Market sentiment received a key boost from the confirmed meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week during the APEC summit. The prospect of renewed high-level dialogue has lifted hopes for a de-escalation in trade disputes, which had threatened the global outlook following recent tariff threats and retaliatory moves over rare earth materials. Separately, Trump’s decision to terminate all trade negotiations with Canada introduced a fresh, albeit smaller, source of friction.

Intel and Auto Stocks Lead Earnings Highlights

While the full earnings deluge, including reports from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), is due next week, several large companies moved the market in premarket trade:

• Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock surged after the semiconductor giant beat expectations for its third-quarter profit, driven by aggressive cost-cutting. The results were the first since the company secured multibillion-dollar investments from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Japan’s SoftBank, and an unprecedented stake from the U.S. government, reinforcing investor optimism about its turnaround plan.
• Ford (NYSE:F) gained premarket after the carmaker surpassed quarterly income expectations, thanks to robust demand for its high-margin SUVs and pickup trucks.
• Target (NYSE:TGT) saw a slight rise after the retailer announced a major restructuring initiative that will cut about 1,800 corporate-level roles, or approximately 8% of its headquarters workforce.

Oil and Gold Markets React to Supply and Profit-Taking

Crude oil prices slipped slightly but were still on track for a hefty weekly gain of around 7%, the largest surge since mid-June. The rally was ignited by fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies, fueling supply concerns.

Meanwhile, Gold prices were headed for their first weekly decline in 10 weeks as investors booked profits from the metal’s recent record run. Spot gold was down 1.4% at $4,067.75 an ounce, marking a weekly dip of more than 3%. Bullion investors are also holding their breath for the CPI data, as a hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the dollar and push yields higher, further pressuring the non-yielding asset.