US Retail Sales Preview

The US Census Bureau’s October Retail Sales report is expected to reveal a decline in consumption for the first time since March. Economists predict a 0.3% decline in October, with sales ex-autos compared to the prior release of 0.6%.

Deutsche Bank expects weak unit motor vehicle sales to lead to a -0.4% print on the headline, while TDS expects retail sales to retreat (-0.3%) for the first time since March.

Volatile auto and petrol station sales are expected to be the main drivers of weaker growth, while the key Control Group is expected to lose momentum. SociGen predicts a 0.3% decline, while CIBC predicts a further pick-up in the Retail Control Group.

Wells Fargo forecasts a 0.2% decline in October, as consumers pull their holiday spending forward to take advantage of Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days and Target’s Circle Week.