US CPI Preview: Forecasts from four major banks

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for January on Tuesday, February 14 at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 12 major banks regarding the upcoming US inflation print.

The annual CPI is expected to decline to 6.2% from 6.5% in December while the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen at 5.5% from 5.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI is forecast at 0.5% while the Core CPI is expected at 0.4%.

Wells Fargo

“We expect to see a 0.4% MoM increase in the CPI. Rising gasoline prices and a pause in the downward trend of used car prices are part of the reason we believe that January will see faster price growth compared to December. That said, the underlying pace of inflation still appears to be gradually slowing, and we expect the year-ago inflation rate to register another decline. We look for YoY CPI inflation to be 6.2% in January. If realized, this would be the slowest pace of CPI inflation since October 2021.”

TDS

“We forecast a firm 0.4% MoM gain in the core CPI series. In terms of the headline, we expect CPI inflation to register its firmest MoM gain since October, posting a strong 0.4% increase. Our MoM projections imply that inflation likely lost speed again on a YoY basis in January as we look for inflation to drop to 6.2% for the headline (after 6.5% YoY in December), and to ease to 5.5% YoY for the core series (after 5.7% in January).”

BofA

“We forecast headline CPI increased by 0.4% MoM in January, which would be an acceleration from the recent pace. We also expect the YoY rate to fall from 6.5% to 6.1%. Meanwhile, we look for core CPI to increase by 0.3% MoM and for the YoY rate to fall from 5.7% to 5.4%.”

TDS

“We forecast a firm 0.4% MoM gain in the core CPI series. In terms of the headline, we expect CPI inflation to register its firmest MoM gain since October, posting a strong 0.4% increase. Our MoM projections imply that inflation likely lost speed again on a YoY basis in January as we look for inflation to drop to 6.2% for the headline (after 6.5% YoY in December), and to ease to 5.5% YoY for the core series (after 5.7% in January).”