US Bond Yields Fall, Curve Slightly Flattens

US Treasury bond yields were lower on Friday, though off session lows, as traders assessed the recent hawkish Federal Reserve stance as the central bank tries to balance rising inflation against the economic toll of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

Yields edged up in the short end, overall flattening the curve after some sharp steepening moves Thursday, especially on the 5-year/30-year.

Fed officials are focused on bringing inflation down to their 2% target and winding down asset purchases by March to give them greater “optionality” next year to raise interest rates if needed, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said in a CNBC interview on Friday.

But since Wednesday, when the Fed ended its last meeting of the year, traders placed some bets that the faster taper would allow for fewer, or farther apart, rate hikes down the line, as the Fed re-focuses on economic data.

The spread between yields on the 5- and 30-year Treasury bond, was at 63.6 basis points, flatter on the day but holding on to some of Thursday’s sharp steepening move. That spread ended at 61.4 bps on Wednesday after the Fed meeting. The market is a little bit nervous about the recent resurgence of COVID cases.

The market right now is penciling rate hikes a little bit further out the curve. The curve has been steepening over the last few days. It does suggest that the market is getting a little bit more nervous about COVID and is not as confident in the visibility of higher rates. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.6 basis points to 1.406%.

European countries prepared to impose further restrictions on Friday in an effort to stem surging cases of the Omicron variant that are threatening to stall a global economic recovery.

Pfizer said the COVID-19 pandemic could extend through next year and announced plans to develop a three-dose vaccine regimen for children ages 2 to 16. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 4.6 basis points to 1.815%.

The two- and 10-year Treasury notes yield spread was at 76.0 basis points, from 79.4 Thursday. The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 2.3 basis points at 0.644%.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.697%, after closing at 2.739% on Thursday. The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.407%.

The US dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap , seen by some as a better gauge of inflation expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed’s quantitative easing, was last at 2.362%.