U.S. Stock Futures Steady as Investors Weigh Recession Risks Ahead of Tariff Announcements

Wall Street index futures traded in tight ranges on Tuesday, stabilizing after a turbulent first quarter, as investors assessed the potential impact of upcoming trade tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Stock Futures Movement

• Dow Jones Futures fell 60 points (-0.1%).
• S&P 500 Futures traded flat.
• Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 20 points (+0.1%).

Market Performance in Q1 2025

• The S&P 500 lost nearly 5%.
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged over 10%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2%.

Strategists at Citi noted that short flows into U.S. equities have brought net positioning in the Nasdaq back to neutral, mirroring the S&P 500 levels. However, equity positioning remains broadly bearish.

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Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs Raise Recession Fears

• Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” are set to take effect on April 2, targeting multiple trading partners.
• A 25% tariff on auto imports will follow on April 3.
• A Wall Street Journal report suggests Trump may expand tariffs to a broader set of countries.

These measures have raised concerns about disrupting global trade and exacerbating recession risks.

• Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession probability to 35%, up from 20%, citing potential tariff hikes raising the average U.S. tariff rate to 15%.

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Key Economic Data This Week

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS):
  • Expected: 7.690 million (February).
  • Previous: 7.740 million (January).
• The data will lead up to the crucial nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

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Corporate Highlights

• PVH Corp (NYSE: PVH):
  • Shares surged premarket after a strong Q4 earnings and revenue beat.
• Progress Software (NASDAQ: PRGS):
  • Gained premarket after reporting strong Q1 earnings and upbeat full-year guidance.
• Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA):
  • Slumped 20% in Q1.
• Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA):
  • Plunged 35% in Q1, facing backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s political activities.
  • Set to release Q1 delivery data this week.

The market remains cautious as traders brace for policy decisions, economic data, and corporate earnings in the coming days.