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U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday as investors digested a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes, alongside fresh earnings from key retail and industrial bellwethers.
At 05:55 ET (10:55 GMT), Dow Jones futures fell 190 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures declined 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 120 points, or 0.5%.
The pullback followed a strong regular session on Wednesday, when Wall Street’s main indices advanced, driven largely by a rally in artificial intelligence heavyweight Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). The S&P 500 rose nearly 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%.
Fed Minutes Strike a Hawkish Note
Investor sentiment shifted after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting. The minutes showed unanimous support for keeping interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range, but revealed growing divisions over the path ahead.
Several policymakers cautioned that inflation could take longer than expected to return to the Fed’s 2% target, while “several” officials indicated that rate hikes could be back on the table if inflation remains persistently elevated. The tone contrasted with prevailing market expectations that inflation and borrowing costs will continue to ease through the year.
Artificial intelligence also emerged as a key area of uncertainty for policymakers, with officials divided on whether rapid AI adoption will ultimately fuel inflation through higher productivity and demand, or dampen price pressures by improving efficiency.
Thursday’s economic calendar includes weekly initial jobless claims and the U.S. trade balance for December, both of which could influence near-term rate expectations.
Walmart, Deere in Focus
Corporate earnings remain a central focus, with Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) set to report fourth-quarter results and provide its outlook for 2026 later on Thursday. As the world’s largest retailer by valuation, Walmart is widely viewed as a bellwether for U.S. consumer health. Its results come amid mounting evidence that sticky inflation is weighing on discretionary spending.
Walmart’s report is also expected to set the tone ahead of upcoming earnings from other major retailers, including Home Depot and Target.
In the industrial space, Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) is due to report before the opening bell. Often seen as a proxy for industrial and agricultural demand, Deere previously warned that sweeping U.S. tariffs could significantly weigh on its business in 2026.
Oil Prices Climb on Middle East Tensions
In commodity markets, oil prices extended their rally on Thursday as rising military activity in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to $71.28 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.5% to $65.99 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday, marking their strongest closes since January 30.
Media reports of increased military and naval activity in the Persian Gulf reinforced perceptions of supply vulnerability, while hopes for any easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports faded after Russia–Ukraine talks failed to deliver a breakthrough.
Additional support came from U.S. inventory data, with the American Petroleum Institute reporting a decline of about 609,000 barrels in crude stockpiles for the week ended February 13. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due later on Thursday and will be closely watched for confirmation.
Overall, markets remain cautious as investors balance strong corporate earnings against a more restrictive Fed outlook and rising geopolitical risks.
