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Market Overview
U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Monday, supported by investor optimism ahead of a key jobs report later this week, even as concerns over a possible federal government shutdown tempered sentiment.
At 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT), Dow Jones Futures gained 189 points (0.4%), S&P 500 Futures rose 33 points (0.5%), and Nasdaq 100 Futures advanced 147 points (0.6%).
The uptick followed modest gains in the prior session after U.S. inflation data broadly matched expectations. Still, all three major indexes ended last week in the red, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapping three-week winning streaks.
Jobs Report in Focus
Markets are awaiting Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls report, a key gauge of U.S. labor market health. Policymakers at the Federal Reserve have repeatedly signaled that cooling job growth is a top priority, even as inflation remains sticky.
- Economists expect 51,000 jobs were added in September, versus 22,000 in August.
- The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.
- Analysts suggest that a figure below 75,000 would likely cement a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting on October 29, while a stronger print above 115,000 could prompt the Fed to pause.
Fed officials recently cut rates by 25 basis points, and projections indicate more cuts are likely by year-end. However, traders have scaled back expectations, now pricing in around 40 basis points of easing in 2025, versus 65 bps earlier this month.
Government Shutdown Risks
A looming U.S. government shutdown adds another layer of uncertainty. Without a stopgap funding bill by September 30, the government would enter its 15th partial closure since 1981.
- Republicans, who control both chambers, have pushed a short-term funding bill.
- Democrats oppose it, demanding reversals to recent healthcare and Medicaid cuts before any deal.
- Congressional leaders are scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump today at the White House. Trump told Reuters over the weekend he believes Democrats “may want to reach an agreement.”
A shutdown could also delay the release of the NFP report, adding to market volatility.
