U.S. stock index futures traded slightly higher on Thursday as investors awaited the release of the latest consumer price index (CPI), a crucial report that could help define the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week.

Futures Snapshot

At 05:15 ET (09:15 GMT):

• Dow Jones Futures: +38 points, or +0.1%
• S&P 500 Futures: +10 points, or +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 Futures: +56 points, or +0.2%

The modest gains followed record-high closes for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite on Wednesday, buoyed in part by strong corporate earnings, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.5%.

Producer Price Data Reinforces Easing Bets

Optimism over rate cuts deepened after the U.S. producer price index (PPI) showed unexpected weakness:

• August PPI: –0.1% month-on-month; +2.6% year-on-year
• Forecasts: +0.3% MoM; +2.9% YoY

The softer reading suggested that wholesale price pressures may be easing, strengthening the case for the Fed to restart its rate-cut cycle at the September 17 policy meeting.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point cut as almost certain, with a slim chance of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.

CPI in Focus

The CPI release later today will be critical in shaping expectations. Economists forecast:

• Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM, +2.9% YoY
• Core CPI (ex-food & energy): +0.2% MoM, +3.2% YoY

A higher-than-expected print could temper expectations for aggressive easing, while an in-line or softer figure would cement bets for more Fed cuts through year-end.

Broader Market Context

The Federal Reserve is balancing evidence of slowing job growth with persistent tariff-driven inflation risks. Markets are also digesting signals that firms may be absorbing higher input costs from tariffs rather than passing them directly onto consumers—potentially cushioning the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also scheduled to deliver a policy update later today, with rates expected to remain unchanged at 2%.