U.S. Retail Sales Expected to Grow by 6.5-8.2%

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects retail sales in the United States to grow by a rate of 6.5% to 8.2% this year, exceeding $4.33 trillion in volume.

The expectation comes as the American economy is recovering from the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic, with the rollout of vaccines set to help contain the virus and ease the reopening of businesses.

“Despite the continuing health and economic challenges COVID-19 presents, we are very optimistic that healthy consumer fundamentals, pent-up demand and widespread distribution of the vaccine will generate increased economic growth, retail sales and consumer spending,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

“From the outset of the pandemic, retailers have gone above and beyond even the most conservative safety guidelines to protect and serve their associates and consumers alike. Retailers are increasingly engaged in working with federal, state and local health officials to distribute and administer the vaccine. This partnership has been key to our economic health throughout the pandemic and will continue this year.”

Early data shows that retail sales increased by 6.7% to $4.06 trillion in 2020, nearly double the NRF expectation of a 3.5% growth, which came mostly due to online and other non-store sales surging by 21.9% last year.

Furthermore, e-commerce sales are expected to grow between 18% and 23%, amounting to $1.14-1.19 trillion.

“The trajectory of the economy is predicated on the effectiveness of the vaccine and its distribution,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“Our principal assumption is that that the vaccination will be effective and permits accelerated growth during the mid-year. The economy is expected to see its fastest growth in over two decades.”