U.S. Stock Futures Mixed as Investors Await Key Inflation Reports

U.S. stock index futures traded in mixed territory on Wednesday, stabilizing near record highs as markets digested the latest batch of corporate earnings and looked ahead to critical inflation data later in the week.

At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), Dow Jones futures slipped by 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures advanced by 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%. The cautious tone followed a prior session in which all three major Wall Street benchmarks closed at fresh record highs, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy at its meeting next week.

The resilience of equity markets comes amid a significant downward revision to U.S. employment figures, showing that the economy created far fewer jobs over the past year than initially reported. This reinforced concerns that the labor market may have been slowing even before the imposition of new U.S. tariffs earlier in the year. Despite the weaker labor backdrop, traders’ expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the September 16–17 meeting remain intact, while speculation of a larger 50 basis point move has also grown.

Inflation Data to Guide Fed Policy

Focus now turns to the release of producer price index (PPI) data on Wednesday, followed by the consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday. Both releases are expected to be pivotal in shaping expectations for the size and trajectory of Fed policy easing.

Consensus forecasts suggest that producer price inflation will remain unchanged from July’s 3.3% annual pace. Any upside surprise could heighten concerns that the Fed faces a dual challenge of managing both persistent inflation and a weakening jobs market.

Market-implied pricing shows traders fully anticipating a 25 basis point reduction next week, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has increased modestly.

Oil Prices Advance on Middle East and Russia Concerns

Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday, buoyed by heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospect of tighter sanctions on Russian energy supplies.

At 06:00 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.6% to $66.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures advanced 0.6% to $63.03 a barrel.

Prices were supported by news of escalating tensions in the Middle East following a strike targeting political leaders in the region, which threatens to derail peace efforts. Additional concerns arose after reports indicated that further Western sanctions could be imposed on buyers of Russian energy, potentially curbing global supply.

The geopolitical backdrop has added to an already uncertain supply outlook, as the world’s top producers balance production policy with ongoing demand risks. Any disruption to Russian oil flows could tighten global balances and underpin prices despite OPEC+ signaling willingness to add more supply to the market.

Market Outlook

The week ahead is expected to be dominated by inflation data, with producer and consumer price releases likely to set the tone for financial markets heading into the Fed’s September policy meeting.

Equities remain near record highs, supported by strong expectations of monetary easing. However, labor market softness and sticky inflation risks continue to present challenges to policymakers.

Commodity markets are meanwhile adjusting to both supply-side shocks and demand-side uncertainties. Oil prices remain particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments, while gold and other safe-haven assets could see renewed flows if political and economic risks intensify.