U.S. Labor Market Caught Between Slowdown and Resilience: A Dual Reading of October and November 2025 Jobs Data

U.S. employment data for October and November 2025 painted a mixed picture of labor market conditions, arriving at a sensitive moment that could trigger unconventional reactions in financial markets. The release of both months’ figures on the same day—due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history—added an extra layer of complexity to interpreting the results.

In October, hiring momentum weakened noticeably. Nonfarm payrolls recorded a net decline of 105,000 jobs, compared with an increase of 108,000 jobs in the previous reading. Despite the contraction in employment, wage growth showed relative strength, as average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis, up from a 0.2% increase in September.

On an annual basis, however, wage growth moderated. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year in October, easing from a stronger 3.8% increase in the prior month, signaling a gradual cooling in wage pressures.

November data offered a partially contrasting picture. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 63,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations for a gain of around 50,000. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, coming in higher than the previous reading and above market expectations, which had anticipated no change.

Wage growth continued to slow in November. Average hourly earnings rose by just 0.1% on a monthly basis, compared with a stronger 0.3% increase in October. On a yearly basis, wage growth remained steady at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month.

Overall, the combined data suggest an uneven trajectory for the U.S. labor market, marked by softer hiring trends alongside stabilizing wage growth. This combination is likely to prompt investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy and the broader economic outlook in the period ahead.