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The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, hitting the lowest level in more than three years and signaling continued resilience in the labor market despite broader signs of cooling.
Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000 in the week ending November 29, according to the U.S. Labor Department — a 27,000 decline from the prior week’s revised 218,000. Economists had expected a far higher reading of 219,000.
This marks the lowest jobless claims figure since September 2022, underscoring that layoffs remain historically subdued.
The four-week moving average, a smoother measure of labor conditions, also dipped — falling 9,500 to 214,750.
Continuing claims edge lower
The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits — known as continuing claims — was 1.939 million for the week ending November 22, down 4,000 from the previous period. Continuing claims are closely watched as a proxy for hiring, indicating how easily workers can find new jobs.
Data arrives ahead of widely expected Fed rate cut
Thursday’s report lands just days before the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 policy meeting, where markets overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point interest rate cut to support a softening labor market.
Recent figures have pointed to:
- Low layoffs, but
- Weak hiring demand, as job openings shrink and private payroll growth stalls.
The Fed has argued since September that there is sufficient evidence of cooling in the job market to justify lower rates — even with gaps in official data caused by the prolonged federal government shutdown.
Market pricing reflects this view:
Fed funds futures now imply an 87% chance of a December rate cut, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
The central bank’s current target range is 3.75%–4%.
With the job market showing signs of slowing but not collapsing, investors expect the Fed to act preemptively to prevent further economic weakening.
