U.S. GDP Revised Up to 3.8% in Q2, but Momentum Seen Slowing

The U.S. economy expanded more strongly than initially thought in the second quarter, but analysts warn that momentum is already cooling under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty.

Stronger Q2 Growth on Imports and Spending

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised second-quarter GDP growth up to 3.8% annualized, compared to the earlier 3.3% estimate. The upgrade was fueled by resilient consumer spending and increased business investment in intellectual property products, notably in artificial intelligence.

A sharp ebb in imports also boosted the headline figure. Imports had been front-loaded earlier this year as companies rushed to beat President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, which pushed the U.S. average tariff rate to its highest level in a century. This dynamic depressed GDP in Q1 (a 0.6% contraction, revised slightly from -0.5%) but provided a rebound effect in Q2.

Revised Data and Broader Outlook

The government’s revisions to data from 2020 through early 2025 show that the first two quarters of this year were heavily distorted by trade flows. Economists stress that these swings mean GDP prints are not a “true reflection” of underlying conditions.

Measured from the income side, Gross Domestic Income (GDI) was revised lower, showing 3.8% growth in Q2 (down from 4.8%). For Q1, GDI rose 1.0% instead of the previously reported 0.2%.

Averaging GDP and GDI — known as Gross Domestic Output (GDO), a more stable gauge — showed a 3.8% expansion in Q2, slightly weaker than the 4.0% earlier estimated.

Slowing Ahead in H2 2025

Despite the upbeat revisions, economists expect growth to moderate to around 1.5% in the second half of the year. The main drag comes from ongoing uncertainty in trade policy, elevated tariffs, and questions around consumer resilience.

Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are watching closely: while stronger Q2 data supports the case for economic resilience, the Fed has also flagged a cooling labor market and sticky inflation, leaving the path of future rate cuts contested.