U.S. Futures Trade Mixed as Investors Weigh Inflation, Earnings, and Trade Uncertainty

U.S. stock index futures hovered near flat levels on Friday as investors digested hot inflation data, corporate earnings reports, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies.

Futures Movement as of 05:15 ET (10:15 GMT):

• Dow Jones Futures ↓ 100 points (-0.2%)
• S&P 500 Futures ↓ 2 points (-0.1%)
• Nasdaq 100 Futures ↑ 5 points (+0.1%)

Market Overview: Wall Street Rally & Trade Policy Developments

Stocks rallied Thursday, driven by gains in tech giants and relief over President Donald Trump delaying reciprocal tariffs:

• S&P 500 ↑ 1%
• NASDAQ Composite ↑ 1.5%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average ↑ 0.8%

Despite Trump’s tough trade rhetoric, the delay in immediate tariff implementation has been seen as a positive sign for negotiations.

Trump’s Tariff Roadmap: Delay Brings Temporary Relief

• Trump signed an executive order outlining reciprocal tariffs that would match or exceed foreign tariffs on U.S. exports.
• However, he did not impose them immediately, opting instead for weeks of investigation and potential diplomatic talks.
• The delay provides time for negotiations with major trading partners like the EU, South Korea, and Japan.

Geopolitical Developments: Ukraine Talks in Munich

• Investor sentiment has improved amid expectations of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
• The Munich Security Conference is set to bring together Western leaders to discuss the future of the conflict.
• Trump recently announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to begin peace talks, with discussions likely to focus on conditions for a settlement.

Upcoming Data: January Retail Sales & Inflation Signals

• Retail sales figures for January are set for release, with expectations of a weak reading due to bad weather.
• Recent inflation data (CPI & PPI) have been hotter than expected, but some softness in PPI components suggests that the PCE price index (Fed’s preferred gauge) could be softer.
• A lower PCE reading could pave the way for future rate cuts, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious about easing too soon.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Investors will closely watch retail sales data and further Fed signals before making big bets on future rate cuts.

Equities remain on track for weekly gains, despite inflation concerns and trade uncertainty.

Tech stocks and improved risk sentiment have helped offset worries about tariffs and interest rates.