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U.S. futures inch higher as Capitol Hill nears shutdown deal; data return and Fed path in focus

U.S. equity futures rose early Wednesday as investors awaited confirmation of a deal to end the longest federal government shutdown on record, a development that would restore the flow of key economic data and help clarify the Federal Reserve’s next move. At 05:30 ET, Dow Jones futures added 0.2% (about 100 points), S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% (25 points), and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.7% (165 points).

Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday as traders balanced the prospect of a government reopening against softer private labor signals. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.2% rise and the Dow climbed 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped nearly 0.3%, reflecting renewed selectivity around rich tech valuations after a brisk rally.

Momentum on Capitol Hill improved after the Senate approved legislation to fund most federal agencies through January 30. A House vote is expected this week, with the measure then heading to the White House for President Donald Trump’s signature. For markets, the immediate payoff would be the resumption of delayed releases—including the monthly jobs report—after a multi-week “data fog” left investors and policymakers without crucial read-outs on growth and inflation.

That fog has complicated the policy outlook heading into the Fed’s December 10–11 meeting. While officials cut rates at the previous two gatherings, they remain split on whether further easing is warranted. Futures markets currently imply roughly a 62% probability of another 25-basis-point reduction in December, up from about 58% the prior day, as traders await incoming labor and price data to refine the odds.

Earnings will provide additional catalysts. After the bell, attention turns to Cisco Systems, where AI-driven cloud investment has underpinned demand for networking infrastructure. Elsewhere, nuclear start-up Oklo edged higher despite widening quarterly losses as it advances regulatory approvals, and Chevron will outline a strategy update later today following its $55 billion acquisition of Hess—an opportunity for management to address capital allocation, portfolio synergies, and dividend/Buyback priorities against a volatile crude backdrop.

Bottom line: A prospective shutdown resolution is putting a modest bid under risk assets, but durability of the move will hinge on the pace at which federal data return, how those prints shape rate expectations, and whether corporate guidance can validate elevated multiples into year-end.

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