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U.S. futures flat as shutdown drags and valuation jitters persist; earnings cushion the blow, oil set for weekly loss

U.S. stock futures were little changed Friday after a bruising week dominated by concerns over stretched technology valuations and a prolonged government shutdown that has obscured key economic signals. By 06:00 ET (11:00 GMT), Dow futures added 9 pts (+0.1%), while S&P 500 futures −3 pts (−0.1%) and Nasdaq 100 futures −28 pts (−0.1%). The backdrop remains fragile after Thursday’s decline—Nasdaq −1.9%, resuming Tuesday’s tech-led selloff.

Valuation angst meets data blackout

All three major indices are set to finish lower for the week (S&P 500 −1.8% WTD; Dow −1.4%; Nasdaq −2.8%) as investors reassess lofty multiples, particularly across AI-exposed mega caps. The government shutdown, now in its second month, has stalled official releases on inflation and employment, leaving markets and the Federal Reserve with reduced visibility. Private indicators did little to soothe nerves: Challenger data showed October layoffs up 183% m/m, the steepest monthly jump in decades, complicating the policy outlook.

Separately, the U.S. Supreme Court’s skepticism toward the legality of certain Trump-era tariffs injected fresh uncertainty into the trade-policy path—an overhang for corporate planning and supply chains.

Earnings still a bright spot

Corporate results continue to exceed expectations and soften the macro blow: 83% of 424 S&P 500 reporters have topped estimates so far for Q3.

  • Airbnb rallied premarket after guiding for upbeat revenue on robust bookings in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
  • Affirm surged after fiscal Q1 results smashed forecasts and management raised full-year guidance.
  • Take-Two fell as Rockstar delayed GTA VI to Nov 2026 from May 2026, the second pushback for the marquee title.

In governance headlines, Tesla shareholders approved an ultra-ambitious compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, enabling up to $1 trillion in stock awards over the next decade, contingent on stretch milestones including an $8.5T market cap and deployment of robotaxis and humanoid robots. Over 75% of votes cast supported the package.

Energy: oil up on the day, down on the week

Crude prices edged higher—Brent +1.2% to $64.11, WTI +1.3% to $60.20—but both are tracking ~2% weekly declines, their second straight, after OPEC+ opted for a modest December output increase while pausing additional hikes in Q1 to avoid a glut. U.S. inventory data showed a larger-than-expected crude build, stoking demand concerns amid shutdown-related disruptions.

The takeaway

With valuation sensitivity elevated and a data vacuum blurring the macro picture, equities look set to close a choppy week on the back foot. Strong micro—beats and resilient guidance—continues to provide a floor, but near-term direction will hinge on clarity around the shutdown’s duration, the Fed’s December path, and whether tech leadership can stabilize without further multiple compression.

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