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Wall Street Futures Steady After Weak Jobs Report
U.S. stock index futures ticked higher Monday, as traders balanced growing conviction over a Federal Reserve rate cut with lingering concerns about a cooling labor market ahead of key inflation data later this week.
At 05:45 ET (09:45 GMT), Dow Jones Futures rose 65 points (0.1%), S&P 500 Futures gained 14 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 80 points (0.3%).
The major U.S. averages retreated on Friday after a softer-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls report highlighted slowing momentum in the labor market. Still, the data reinforced expectations that the Fed will deliver a 25 basis point cut at its September 16-17 policy meeting, with some traders also pricing in a small chance of a 50 basis point move.
CME FedWatch showed markets assigning a 91.7% probability of a 25 bps cut and 8.3% chance of a larger half-point cut. Despite Friday’s dip, the S&P 500 remains close to record highs set last week.
Inflation Data in the Spotlight
Investors now turn their attention to Thursday’s release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). Analysts expect inflation to have accelerated modestly to 2.9% year-on-year from 2.7% in July, reflecting the first wave of higher prices from President Trump’s tariffs.
Producer price index (PPI) figures are also due this week. While these won’t affect the Fed’s imminent September decision, they will be key in shaping expectations for additional easing later this year. Policymakers have repeatedly flagged that tariff-driven inflation remains a risk to future rate cuts.
French and Japanese Political Turmoil Adds Global Uncertainty
In Europe, attention turns to France, where Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a no-confidence vote over his fiscal plans. Defeat would force his resignation, handing President Emmanuel Macron the task of either appointing a new prime minister or calling fresh elections.
Meanwhile in Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned on Sunday after heavy election losses, raising uncertainty over Tokyo’s fiscal and monetary policies just as the government finalized a U.S. trade deal. The abrupt departure may spark a leadership contest in the world’s fourth-largest economy.
