U.S. Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up in June: A Fragile Rebound

In June 2025, U.S. consumer sentiment showed signs of life. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index climbed 16.3% to 60.7, up from May but still 18% below December 2024 levels.

A Modest Upturn Amid Economic unease

This uptick, though notable, reflects cautious optimism rather than robust confidence. Consumers remain wary, haunted by fears of rising inflation and a potential economic slowdown. The index’s current conditions component rose 10% to 64.8, while expectations for the future surged 21.3% to 58.1, yet both lag significantly behind last year’s figures.

Tariffs Shape Perceptions

Tariffs continue to loom large in consumers’ minds, with 59% citing them as a factor in June—down from 66% in May but still a dominant concern. Fewer consumers now view tariffs as a barrier to purchasing big-ticket items like cars or appliances, yet sentiment remains weaker than late 2024. For example, a family in Ohio might hesitate to buy a new vehicle, citing tariff-driven price hikes, reflecting broader unease about long-term costs.

Labor and Income: Mixed Signals

Labor market outlooks improved slightly, with 57% of consumers expecting unemployment to rise, down from 66% in March. Personal income expectations also edged up, but they remain 17% below December 2024 levels. This cautious sentiment suggests limited support for strong consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth.

The June rebound offers a glimmer of hope, but persistent worries about inflation and global uncertainties, like Middle East tensions, keep consumers guarded. Without sustained relief from tariff concerns or clearer economic signals, robust confidence may remain elusive, shaping a cautious spending landscape.