Trump’s reelection could mean return of US-China trade war

Geopolitical risks remain high and economists discuss what to look out for in 2024. Severe geopolitical shocks and persistent tensions

The new year could mark a watershed for political and military support for Ukraine, particularly as elections will be held in the US Military support from the US is critical, and if the war enters a stalemate phase, Ukraine could face growing pressure to negotiate.

A peace deal would likely entail territorial concessions, which would raise long-term risks to European security. Apart from the US presidential elections in November, the key event next year will be the Taiwan election on 13 January for US-China relations.

DPP is favourite to keep power, but should the Presidency go to KMT, markets could see an easing of China-Taiwan tensions. The US election campaign will likely lead to tougher rhetoric on China, and a potential Trump win would put relations on a more unpredictable path.

Elections for the European Parliament in June will also be something to watch next year. The EP has legislative power, and it oversees the EU budget. Hence, it is key in approving trade agreements and support packages for Ukraine.