Surprise NFP data could boost USD, US Shares, Gold

Nonfarm Payrolls smashed estimates with 272K in May, way above 185K expected and the 120-235K range. Moreover, wages beat with 0.4% vs 0.3% MoM and 4.1% vs. 3.9% YoY.

The only disappointment was the symbolic increase of the unemployment rate to 4%, but that was fully overshadowed by the other figures. The US Dollar is up, Gold is down, stocks are down.

Nonfarm Payrolls is the official US labor market report, usually published on the first Friday of the month. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has two mandates: price stability and full employment – and the latter is measured by this report.

The economic calendar points to an increase of 185,000 jobs in the upcoming report for May 2024, similar to 175,000 reported for April. Apart from the headline data, the politically sensitive Unemployment Rate is projected to have remained at 3.9% and Average Hourly Earnings (wages) carry expectations for a 0.3% monthly gain and 3.9% yearly.

Other employment data released earlier this week mostly pointed lower: ADP’s private-sector labor report for May missed forecasts, and the JOLTs publication for April showed the softest hiring since 2021. A small uptick in the employment component of the ISM Services PMI partially offset the weak data.