S&P Global forecasts 8.5% contraction in Russia’s economy in 2022

Credit rating agency S&P Global cut its forecast for Russia’s 2022 GDP growth by more than 11 percentage points to a contraction of 8.5%, while slashing its forecasts for Poland and Turkey by more than a percentage point due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine.

On its economic outlook for emerging markets for the next quarter, S&P Global said its base assumption was that “the conflict will have the most acute impact on commodity markets, supply chains, and investor and consumer confidence in the first and second quarters of 2022.”

S&P Global suspended all products and services for customers in Russia and Belarus this March due to the war in Ukraine.

S&P Global cut its forecast for Russia to a contraction of 8.5% from its previous estimate of 2.7% growth, and lowered its estimates for growth in Poland by 1.4 percentage points to 3.6% and Turkey by 1.3 percentage points to 2.4%.

“A combination of financial, trade, and technology sanctions has never been imposed on a large, globally integrated economy before, so we have little to go on to predict just how great the impact will be,” S&P said in a report.