Seven Major Banks Forecast RBA’s Meeting

The Reserve Bank of Australia is having a monetary policy meeting and will announce the resulting decision on Tuesday, December 7.

Economists and researchers of seven major banks have focused on the potential outcomes from central bank’s meeting. Policymakers are expected to hold their fire and keep the current policy as it is.

ING
“We do not expect the RBA to change policy at this meeting. The RBA has been back-pedalling a bit from its insistence that rates will not rise until 2024, and it at least now acknowledges that a 2023 hike is a possibility”.

Westpac
“The RBA is expected to keep policy settings unchanged at its last meeting of 2021. As such, the focus will again be on the wording of the Governor’s decision statement, particularly any assessments of the latest round of economic data, including the Q3 national accounts, and the shifting external environment, particularly with respect to price inflation in developed economies.

Standard Chartered
“We do not expect much new from the RBA given the slew of major changes announced at the last meeting. Our current forecast is for the RBA to start normalizing in Q4-2022. At 0.1%, the policy rate is excessively accommodative for an economy that may return to trend by mid-2022.

TDS
“We don’t expect the RBA to announce any policy changes, retaining the target rate at 0.10%, the rate on ES Balances at 0% and QE continuing at a weekly rate of AUD4 B/wk through to Feb”.

BBH
“Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep policy on hold and maintain its dovish tone. At the last meeting, the bank abandoned Yield Curve Control but maintained its dovish tone”.

Citibank
“RBA Board Meeting: Citi cash rate forecast: no change, Previous: no change. We do not expect RBA to make any policy shifts in its final meeting of 2021. This means the cash rate will remain at 0.1%, and the Board will persist with purchasing AUD4 B worth of bonds per week, until its next review in February 2022.”

SocGen
“We expect the RBA to maintain its current monetary policy settings, maintaining a cash rate target of 0.10% and continuing the government bond purchase programme at a rate of AUD4 B a week until at least mid-February 2022”.