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The Russian rouble strengthened past the 81 mark against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, reaching its highest level since June 28, 2024, as climbing oil prices and geopolitical optimism fueled investor demand for the currency.
As of 09:00 GMT, the rouble was trading 1.5% higher at 80.90 per dollar in thin pre-holiday trade ahead of the Orthodox Easter.
The latest move reflects a more than 40% rally in the Russian currency since the beginning of the year, largely driven by:
- Rising global oil prices, with Brent crude gaining 3% on April 17, and
- Expectations of improving relations between Moscow and Washington.
Rouble Shrugs Off U.S. Caution on Peace Talks
Despite bullish momentum, markets largely brushed off comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who warned that President Donald Trump may abandon efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal unless there are immediate signs of diplomatic progress.
The statement had limited market impact, suggesting investor focus remains squarely on economic fundamentals and energy exports, particularly oil, which remains Russia’s top commodity earner.
Gains Against Yuan Continue
The rouble also gained marginally against the Chinese yuan, which now plays a central role in Russia’s foreign exchange markets due to Western sanctions.
- The rouble was up 0.1% to 11.08 per yuan on the Moscow Exchange.
Since the start of 2023, the yuan has become the most traded foreign currency in Russia, used extensively in central bank interventions and international settlements.
Outlook
The rouble’s performance heading into Q2 will likely remain sensitive to:
- Fluctuations in energy prices
- Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding sanctions and diplomacy
- The pace of capital controls and foreign exchange interventions by Russia’s central bank
For now, oil strength and geopolitical optimism appear to be sustaining rouble momentum despite broader market caution.
