RBA Holds Rates at 4.1%, Flags Inflation Progress but Stays Cautious

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates steady at 4.1% on Tuesday, as widely anticipated, while acknowledging progress in lowering inflation but maintaining a cautious stance amid economic uncertainties.

Key Takeaways from the RBA Decision:

• Cash Rate Held at 4.1%: This follows a 25-basis-point cut in February.
• Inflation Declining as Expected: The RBA noted that inflation is easing in line with forecasts.
• Cautious on Inflation Risks: The central bank warned that inflation could rebound, keeping policy tight.
• Data-Driven Policy Approach: The RBA reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation sustainably within its 2%-3% target.
• Concerns Over U.S. Tariffs & Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions and global instability could impact economic growth.
• Labor Market & Productivity Worries: Australia’s tight labor market and weak productivity growth remain key concerns.

Outlook on Rate Cuts

• Markets expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 bps in May, after the federal elections.
• However, given uncertainty over inflation and economic growth, any easing cycle is likely to be gradual.

The RBA’s cautious approach suggests that future rate cuts will be data-dependent, with global trade risks and domestic consumption trends playing a crucial role.