Possibilities of a recession in the British economy declined, supported by unexpected growth in November

Britain’s economy caught unexpectedly slight growth in November, after receiving a boost during the soccer World Cup from cafe and pub activity and video game sales, reducing the chances of it already falling into recession despite generally bleaker outlooks for 2023.

Data from the Office for National Statistics on Friday showed that Britain’s gross domestic product rose 0.1% in November compared to October, more than the median forecast of a 0.2% drop by economists polled by Reuters.

In the three months to the end of November, the economy contracted 0.3%, the same rate as the Reuters poll had predicted, but this was driven by a 0.6% drop in output in September, when many activities were halted to mourn the death of Queen Elizabeth.

Stronger-than-expected growth in November means that Britain will not record two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product, which usually defines a recession in Europe, unless it records a somewhat sharp drop in output in December.

For a negative fourth-quarter growth result, the bureau said, December’s gross domestic product should decline by about 0.5%, assuming there are no further revisions.

Consumer inflation reached a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, and the pressure on living standards has yet to ease, while the government budget watchdog predicted in November that output would drop 1.4% in 2023.