OPEC+ to Discuss 2027 Production Baselines and Potential July Output Hike

OPEC+ is set to hold a key meeting on Wednesday to deliberate on long-term production baselines for 2027, as the group navigates internal differences over quotas, according to Reuters, citing two delegates familiar with the matter. A separate meeting on Saturday may result in a decision to accelerate oil output increases for July.

The group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, has been working for several years to revise the baselines used to calculate member quotas—an issue that has become increasingly contentious. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, which have expanded production capacity, are pushing for higher baselines, while some African members, facing declining output, are lobbying for more conservative adjustments.

The Wednesday meeting is expected to request OPEC’s headquarters to develop a mechanism for setting these baselines by 2027. However, no immediate changes to current output policies are anticipated from this meeting, according to the delegates.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, the eight OPEC+ members currently phasing in output increases are likely to agree on a further production hike of 411,000 barrels per day for July, in line with the additions seen in May and June.

The discussions come amid a complex backdrop of shifting global demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing efforts within the group to balance market stability with individual member needs.