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OPEC kept its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged for both 2025 and 2026, according to its monthly oil market report released Monday, while signaling that the global supply-demand balance could tighten less than previously expected next year as OPEC+ production continues to rise.
The organization said the world economy remains on a solid growth path, providing steady support for energy consumption. The group maintained its forecast that global oil demand will grow by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and by an additional 1.8 million bpd in 2026, reflecting sustained transportation and industrial demand, particularly from emerging markets.
Production Increase Eases Market Tightness
The OPEC+ alliance, which includes OPEC members along with Russia and other major producers, raised total crude output by 630,000 bpd in September to an estimated 43.05 million bpd, in line with earlier agreements to gradually unwind supply cuts.
This faster pace of unwinding production curbs has added extra barrels to the market, fueling concerns about potential oversupply and contributing to this year’s downward pressure on oil prices. Brent crude futures have fallen sharply in recent months, hovering near multi-month lows amid weaker-than-expected demand and higher inventories.
Smaller Deficit Projected for Next Year
OPEC’s latest calculations indicate that the expected demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will average 43.1 million bpd—only slightly above the group’s current output levels. That suggests a market deficit of just 50,000 bpd if the bloc maintains September’s production rate, a significant reduction compared to earlier estimates that had projected a much wider supply shortfall.
The data imply that global oil markets could be close to balance next year, with additional supply from non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana further offsetting demand growth.
Market Outlook
Analysts said the unchanged demand outlook underscores OPEC’s confidence in global economic resilience despite trade tensions and political uncertainty. However, the projected narrowing of the deficit points to limited price upside unless demand accelerates or OPEC+ adjusts its supply plans.
With inventories rebuilding and speculative positioning easing, markets will likely monitor OPEC’s November meeting closely for signals on whether the group intends to pause or slow its output increases to prevent another price slide.
