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OPEC on Wednesday projected a decline in global demand for crude from the wider OPEC+ producer group in the second quarter of the year, pointing to a softer seasonal outlook as producers weigh their next supply moves.
According to OPEC’s latest monthly oil report, world demand for OPEC+ crude is expected to average 42.20 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, down by about 400,000 bpd from 42.60 million bpd in the first quarter. The forecasts for both quarters were left unchanged from the previous report.
The outlook comes as OPEC+—which includes OPEC members alongside Russia and other allies—continues to navigate a delicate balance between supporting prices and avoiding a supply glut. After gradually raising output last year following an extended period of production cuts, the group paused further hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid concerns over excess supply.
Attention now turns to a meeting scheduled for March 1, when eight key OPEC+ members are expected to decide whether to resume production increases from April.
Despite the anticipated short-term dip in demand for OPEC+ crude, OPEC maintained its more optimistic longer-term outlook for global oil consumption. The group reiterated its forecast that world oil demand will grow by 1.38 million bpd this year and by a further 1.34 million bpd in 2027—figures that remain higher than projections from several other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency.
On the supply side, the report showed that OPEC+ production fell to 42.45 million bpd in January 2026, down by 439,000 bpd from December levels. The decline was driven mainly by lower output in Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran.
Overall, the report underscores a cautious near-term market outlook, with softer second-quarter demand expected to influence upcoming policy decisions, even as OPEC remains confident in steady global oil demand growth over the medium term.
