WTI extended lower in line with the prior bearish view, tagging the first target at $58.50 and printing a $58.05 low.
Technical outlook
- 50-SMA (4H): Price remains below the average, keeping downside pressure intact.
- Structure: A bearish pattern with lower highs/lows supports continuation risk.
Base case (bearish while below $59.05)
- A decisive break/4H close below $58.00 would likely press toward $57.50 first support; follow-through exposes $56.80.
Invalidation / bounce path
- Reclaiming and holding above $59.05 would temper immediate downside and allow a corrective bounce.
Event risk
- High-impact releases today: UK Retail Sales, prelim Manufacturing/Services PMIs for the UK, Eurozone, and US. Expect elevated volatility around the prints.
Risk note
Backdrop remains headline-sensitive. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if trigger levels give way.
Trading in CFDs involves high risk, and therefore all scenarios are subject to potential outcomes. The analysis provided above is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather an illustrative reading of price action on the chart.
| S1: 57.50 | R1: 59.50 |
| S2: 56.75 | R2: 60.80 |
| S3: 55.50 | R3: 61.50 |
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