Crude prices eased Monday, giving back part of Friday’s surge after tanker-tracking data showed Russia’s Novorossiysk port had resumed crude loadings, tempering immediate fears of a supply shock.

• Brent (Jan) down 0.7% to $63.97/bbl
• WTI down 0.7% to $59.52/bbl (04:35 ET)

Supply scare fades—but risk linger remains

Friday’s 2%+ rally followed Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal that temporarily halted exports worth roughly 2% of global supply. With loadings back online by Sunday, the acute squeeze eased, trimming the risk premium.

Still, the attack cadence is rising: Ukraine said it struck Russia’s Ryazan refinery on Saturday and Novokuibyshevsk in Samara on Sunday, keeping medium-term disruption risks in play.

Sanctions clock ticks

Traders are also tracking U.S. sanctions tightening after Nov. 21, which bar dealings with Lukoil and Rosneft. Buyers are unwinding contracts, injecting uncertainty over how much Russian crude could become effectively stranded or require longer, costlier routes to market.

Macro balance: surplus vs. shocks

While consensus still points to a large market surplus through 2026, the frequency and scope of drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure argue for a stickier risk premium, ING noted. The push-pull between structural surplus and episodic outages suggests range-bound price action near term, with headline sensitivity elevated.

What to watch

• Sanctions enforcement details and any carve-outs affecting flows post-Nov. 21.
• Further strikes on Russian export infrastructure or refineries.
• OPEC+ signals around managing perceived 2026 surplus against rising geopolitical risk.

For now, the market is fading last week’s spike but staying alert to fresh supply headlines that could quickly reprice the risk premium.