Oil Rebounds Above $100 as Iran Conflict Keeps Supply Risks in Focus

Oil prices surged in Asian trading on Tuesday, recovering from the previous session’s sharp losses as concerns over supply disruptions from the U.S.–Israel war with Iran continued to dominate market sentiment.

By 00:58 ET (04:58 GMT), Brent crude futures rose 2.8% to $103.01 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 2.6% to $95.54 per barrel.

The rebound followed a 5% drop in the prior session, with crude regaining ground even as some limited shipping activity resumed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Limited shipping fails to ease supply fears

Reports indicated that some vessels—particularly India and Pakistan-flagged tankers—successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, offering brief relief to markets.

However, the waterway remains largely blocked, and Iran has warned it will target vessels linked to the United States and its allies, allowing only select ships to pass.

Efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to rally international support to secure the strait have largely been rebuffed, with several allies declining to send naval forces to the region.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, handling roughly 20% of global oil supply, making any disruption a major risk to global energy markets.

Conflict intensifies into third week

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran showed no signs of easing as it entered its third consecutive week.

Iran has threatened to target U.S.-affiliated industries in the Middle East, following last week’s strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub.

Overnight, Iran and Israel exchanged airstrikes, while drones and rockets were reportedly fired at a U.S. embassy in Baghdad, highlighting the widening scope of the conflict.

Oil supported by prolonged disruption risks

Oil prices have climbed sharply since the conflict began, supported by expectations of prolonged disruptions to global supply chains.

Many Asian economies are heavily dependent on oil imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing their vulnerability to supply shocks.

Inflation concerns and central bank focus

The surge in oil prices has intensified concerns about energy-driven inflation, which could push major central banks toward a more hawkish policy stance.

This week, several key central banks—including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)—are scheduled to hold policy meetings, with markets closely watching for signals on how policymakers plan to respond to rising inflation risks.

With geopolitical tensions ongoing and supply routes still under threat, oil markets are expected to remain highly volatile in the near term.