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Oil prices remained little changed on Thursday, as markets assessed the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while awaiting the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting.
- Brent crude futures fell 7 cents (-0.09%) to $76.51 per barrel.
- U.S. crude futures inched up 2 cents (+0.03%) to $72.64 per barrel by 0738 GMT.
Key Market Factors
1. U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico
- White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Trump intends to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Saturday.
- Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick suggested that Canada and Mexico could avoid tariffs if they tighten border control on fentanyl.
2. U.S. Crude Stockpiles Rise, Demand Impacted by Winter Storms
- Crude inventories rose by 3.46 million barrels, slightly above the expected increase of 3.19 million barrels.
- Winter storms affected demand, contributing to the rise in stockpiles.
3. Russia’s Crude Exports Decline Amid Sanctions
- Russia’s crude exports from western ports are expected to fall by 8% in February, as Moscow prioritizes refining capacity.
- The latest U.S. sanctions have further constrained Russian crude exports.
4. OPEC+ Meeting on February 3
- OPEC+ ministers will discuss Trump’s push to expand U.S. oil production and how the group should respond.
- Russia and Saudi Arabia are expected to play key roles in shaping the organization’s stance.
- While Trump has urged OPEC to lower oil prices, analysts believe a price war between the U.S. and OPEC+ is unlikely, as it could hurt both sides.
Market Outlook
With U.S. tariffs, shifting crude exports, and OPEC+ decisions on the horizon, oil markets remain highly sensitive. While rising U.S. stockpiles and weaker demand exert downward pressure, geopolitical uncertainty could keep volatility elevated.
