Oil Prices Climb for Fourth Session as Iran Unrest and Russia Risks Tighten Supply Outlook

Oil prices extended their rally in Asian trading on Tuesday, rising for a fourth straight session as markets priced in mounting supply risks from Iran and Russia, offsetting lingering expectations of additional barrels returning from Venezuela.

By 21:18 ET (02:18 GMT), Brent crude futures for March delivery were up 0.4% at $64.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.4% to $59.70 per barrel. Brent touched a more than seven week high in the prior session, while WTI climbed to its strongest level in a month.

The advance reflects a growing geopolitical risk premium, with traders increasingly focused on the potential for supply disruptions across key producing regions.

Iran Unrest Fuels Supply Fear Premium

Iran, a major OPEC producer, is facing its largest wave of anti government protests in years, with reports of widespread violence and heavy casualties as security forces crack down on demonstrators.

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of possible military action if Iranian authorities continue to use lethal force, raising the specter of a broader regional confrontation. Trump also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran, in a bid to economically isolate Tehran.

A Reuters report said Trump is expected to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss policy options on Iran, keeping markets on edge over the potential for escalation.

Russia Export Routes Under Pressure

Supply risks are not limited to the Middle East. Russia’s oil export infrastructure has come under repeated attack amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian oil facilities and export hubs, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk. Exports of Kazakh crude through the CPC terminal are expected to fall sharply this month, with shipments projected at 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day, around 45% below initial expectations, according to Bloomberg.

These disruptions have added to concerns over tighter flows from the Black Sea region.

Venezuela Looms as a Longer Term Counterweight

Balancing these risks, another OPEC producer is preparing to re enter export markets. Following political upheaval in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, Trump said last week that Caracas would hand over up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States.

While this could eventually add supply back into the global market, analysts caution that any meaningful increase in Venezuelan output will take time, given years of underinvestment and infrastructure decay.

For now, immediate risks from Iran and Russia are dominating sentiment, keeping crude supported and extending oil’s early year rebound.