Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
Oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, as progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had recently driven crude markets higher.
By 21:55 ET (01:55 GMT):
- Brent crude futures (June delivery) declined 1.8% to $66.76 per barrel
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 1.9% to $62.82 per barrel
Both benchmarks had closed more than 3% higher last Thursday, the final trading session before the Good Friday holiday, as traders previously priced in heightened risks to supply.
U.S. and Iran Take Steps Toward Reviving Nuclear Deal
Market sentiment shifted after Washington and Tehran agreed to launch expert-level discussions aimed at shaping a new nuclear framework. Talks were held indirectly in Rome, mediated by Oman, with follow-up sessions set for Wednesday and Saturday in Muscat.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described the dialogue as “constructive,” signaling that both parties had reached a better mutual understanding on key objectives.
The discussions are part of broader efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the U.S. exited in 2018 under President Donald Trump.
Trump, now back in office, has demanded a swift agreement, warning of potential military consequences if Iran advances its nuclear capabilities unchecked.
The prospect of a deal—and the eventual return of Iranian oil exports to international markets—has weighed on oil prices by increasing future supply expectations and calming tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Russia Declares One-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine
Adding further downward pressure to oil was a surprise 24-hour ceasefire in Ukraine, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin to coincide with the Orthodox Easter holiday.
The truce, which expired Sunday night, was viewed as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantial shift in strategy, with:
- Kyiv accusing Russia of using the ceasefire to reposition troops
- Moscow blaming Ukraine for continued artillery fire during the pause
Although brief, the ceasefire introduced short-term optimism among investors that it could signal an opening for broader de-escalation or humanitarian engagement—both of which would reduce geopolitical instability in a region key to global energy and grain markets.
Market Implications
- Geopolitical tensions are one of the most powerful drivers of oil price volatility.
- Signs of diplomatic progress in both the Middle East and Eastern Europe are contributing to a re-pricing of risk, pulling prices lower.
- Upcoming nuclear talks and any future developments on Ukraine will be closely watched by energy traders, especially amid a backdrop of softer global demand forecasts.
With OPEC+ production cuts, U.S. strategic reserves policy, and China’s recovery also on the radar, oil markets remain highly sensitive to both supply and sentiment shifts in the coming days.
