Oil Prices Slip as Trump–Putin Peace Talks Ease Supply Fears

Crude on Track for 3% Weekly Loss
Oil prices extended their decline on Friday, heading toward a weekly loss of nearly 3%, as traders weighed the impact of a surprise diplomatic breakthrough between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside bearish supply data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

At 06:45 GMT, Brent crude futures slipped 0.26% to $60.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.26% to $57.31 — both benchmarks at their lowest levels since early May.

Peace Prospects Cool Supply Concerns

Crude markets were rattled after Trump and Putin agreed to hold a summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss a possible end to the war in Ukraine — a development that could reshape the global energy landscape.

The announcement reduced fears of long-term supply disruptions linked to Russian oil exports, which have been under sanctions pressure since 2022.
“Concerns of tighter supplies were eased after it was announced that Trump would be meeting with Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodities analyst at ANZ.

The potential thaw in U.S.-Russia relations overshadowed news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is visiting Washington to push for more U.S. military aid, including Tomahawk missiles, while the White House continues urging India and China to scale back imports of Russian crude.

Bearish Data from the EIA Adds Pressure

Adding to the downside, the EIA reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels last week to 423.8 million barrels, far exceeding expectations for a modest 288,000-barrel increase.

The larger-than-expected stock build was attributed to lower refinery utilization during seasonal maintenance turnarounds.
The report also showed U.S. oil production climbing to 13.636 million barrels per day, a new record high, further stoking fears of oversupply in an already fragile market.

IEA Outlook Signals Growing Glut

Earlier in the week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a global supply surplus in 2026, projecting that production growth — particularly from non-OPEC producers — would outpace demand recovery.

This outlook added to the bearish tone, compounding the effects of diplomatic optimism and rising U.S. inventories.

Market Outlook

Analysts say crude could remain under pressure in the near term as traders weigh the balance between potential geopolitical de-escalation and robust U.S. supply growth.
If the Trump–Putin summit results in tangible progress toward peace, global oil markets may shift decisively into surplus territory, reinforcing the IEA’s warning of a prolonged bearish phase heading into 2026.