Oil Prices Slide After U.S. Move to Seize Control in Venezuela Raises Supply Concerns

Oil prices fell in European trading on Monday after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend and signaled plans to assume control of the country’s governance and key energy assets, raising expectations of higher future crude supply.

Brent crude futures slipped 0.9% to $60.20 a barrel by 04:14 ET (09:14 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 1.0% to $56.77 a barrel. Prices had risen as much as 0.5% earlier in the session before giving up gains.

Crude remains under pressure after sliding more than 18% in 2025 — its weakest annual performance in five years — as fears of oversupply and slowing global demand weighed heavily on the market.

U.S. move in Venezuela sparks supply outlook shift

Maduro is expected to face drug-trafficking charges in New York. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would oversee Venezuela until new elections take place and that major U.S. oil companies would be permitted to manage large parts of the country’s production.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves, but output has been hampered for years by sanctions, aging infrastructure, and underinvestment. Analysts said expanded U.S. control could eventually lift global supply — a development that may place further downward pressure on oil prices, though the process is expected to take time.

“If the sudden events in Venezuela could be distilled into one market conclusion, it would be future oil supply,” said Ben Emons, CIO and founder of Fed Watch Advisors, noting the potential for lower oil and gasoline prices if production ramps up. He added that any such effect would likely unfold gradually as facilities are repaired and upgraded.

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said signals from Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez calling for cooperation with the U.S. point to the possibility of a “smooth transition.” That scenario increases the likelihood that restrictions on sanctioned tankers could be eased, potentially adding near-term downward pressure on prices.

However, Patterson cautioned that a “messier transition” could disrupt as much as 900,000 barrels per day of supply, introducing limited upside risk in what remains a broadly well-supplied market. ING expects Brent to average around $57 per barrel this year.

OPEC+ keeps output steady despite rising regional tensions

Separately, markets also reacted to a weekend decision by OPEC+ to leave production levels unchanged following a brief meeting that reportedly did not address escalating tensions among some of its members.

Strains between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intensified in late December amid developments linked to the conflict in Yemen. Throughout 2025, OPEC+ steadily increased production — a key factor contributing to supply-glut concerns and persistent downward pressure on crude benchmarks heading into the new year.